INTRODUCTION

This report includes medium-term forecasts of air traffic in the
Transpacific area, in the Asia/Pacific region, and for selected
Transpacific and Asia/Pacific city-pair markets through to 2014.
The report also contains a long-term forecast with a horizon to the
year 2030, including a short-term forecast for 2010-2014 and
intermediate forecasts for each of the years 2020 and 2030.
Forecasts are provided for total passenger traffic and aircraft
movements, and in the case of the aggregate Transpacific market,
also for peak hour movements on selected route groups for the year
2014. The peak hour analysis is based on a detailed review of
traffic during a typical July week of 2009 and 2010, summarized in
Appendix B.

These forecasts were produced by the APA TFG at its fifteenth
meeting, held in Bangkok from 1 to 8 November 2010. Representatives
from Canada, Japan, Singapore and Thailand participated at the
meeting (list of participants appears in Appendix A). In addition
to inputs from the participants, traffic and financial data for the
Transpacific market were received from the US FAA and Hong Kong FIR
data were provided by the Hong Kong SAR CAD. The Group's activities
are serviced and coordinated by the ICAO Secretariat at
Headquarters, in close consultation with the ICAO Asia and Pacific
Regional Office.

The economic downturn experienced in 1997/1998 in the
Asia/Pacific region had major impacts on traffic levels, but the
region regained economic strength. This was evidenced by almost 5
per cent growth in total Asia/Pacific region GDP in 2000.
Consequently, traffic in the Transpacific and the
Intra-Asia/Pacific regions in 2000 increased by 6.8 and 5.8 per
cent, respectively. Tourism in the region also benefited from the
recovery and experienced high growth rates. It was against this
background that the tenth meeting of the APA TFG revised the
Transpacific and Intra-Asia/Pacific forecasts in June 2001. In
addition, forecasts of aircraft movements to the year 2015, for the
Intra-Asia/Pacific route group, were introduced for the first time.
The Group also considered ways and means of addressing the
requirements identified by the ICAO Asia/Pacific Air Navigation
Planning and Implementation Regional Group (APANPIRG) and its
relevant sub-groups.

The events of 11 September 2001 in the United States
precipitated a sudden drop in traffic and thereby invalidated the
forecasts which had been developed by the Group in June 2001,
particularly as weaknesses in the global economy began to emerge
and as consumer confidence eroded.

In light of the above developments, the eleventh APA TFG meeting
concentrated primarily on the revision of the Transpacific and
Intra-Asia/Pacific forecasts together with forecasts of aircraft
movements to the year 2015 for the Intra-Asia/Pacific region.

The outbreak of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) had
devastating effects on air traffic to, from and within the affected
areas in the first half of 2003. Reported monthly figures suggest
that the drop in passenger traffic reached its lowest in May after
which it started a steady recovery. It is estimated that in 2003,
passenger traffic on Transpacific and Intra-Asia/Pacific routes
dropped by some 10 per cent. It was against this background that
the twelfth meeting of the APA TFG focussed on the revision of the
medium- and long-term forecasts for the Transpacific and
Intra-Asia/Pacific markets; the horizon of the long-term forecasts
being extended to the year 2020.

The thirteenth meeting of the Group focussed on the update of
the forecasts developed during the previous meeting of the Group,
taking into account the developments which have taken place on both
Transpacific and Intra-Asia air transport markets since
mid-2004.

The forecasts for the Transpacific and Intra-Asia/Pacific
markets were updated by the Group at its fourteenth meeting, in
view of the developments in these markets up to mid-2008, including
the surge in the fuel prices and the slowdown in the economy. Also,
the time horizon of the long-term forecasts was extended up to the
year 2025.

At its fifteenth meeting, the Group updated air traffic
forecasts for these two markets taking into account the impact of
the 2008/2009 unprecedented economic recession on air traffic
developments and extended the forecast time horizon to 2030. The
Group was briefed by the ICAO Secretariat on the preliminary
results of ICAO long-term forecasts developed recently by applying
a new methodology and it noted that the forecasts will be published
in early 2011. These preliminary results were taken into account by
the Group in the development of the forecasts for the Transpacific
and Intra- Asia/Pacific markets.

Apart from ICAO Member States, the primary users of these area
forecasts are expected to be air navigation service providers in
the regions concerned and planning groups, especially APANPIRG.
This information is also likely to be of interest to airports and
airlines of the regions concerned to assist in their planning
processes. The format and content of reports, as well as the
forecasts of the APA TFG will be modified progressively to respond
to the requirements of primary users, such as APANPIRG, and assist
the progressive implementation of CNS/ATM systems in the region. In
that context, the Group received brief information about the recent
APANPIFG meeting held in early September 2008 in the premises of
the ICAO Regional Office in Bangkok. The APANPIRG had confirmed
that the forecasts produced by the APA TFG are broadly used in the
planning process of the air navigation facilities and services of
the region.

At its fifteenth meeting, the APA TFG also initially considered
two proposals put forward by the Bangkok Office Secretariat that
the Group develop detailed forecasts of aircraft movements by
specific air traffic service (ATS) routes and forecasts of aircraft
movements in the Asia/Pacific airports, the latter by aircraft
type.

With respect to the first proposal, the Group believed that it
is well positioned to develop forecasts for specific ATS routes,
provided States in the two regions ensure adequate resources and
information required. However, the task is extensive and at present
it would not be possible for the Group to carry it out without an
access to appropriate databases and with the resources being at its
disposal, unless the scope of work of the Group would be revised by
eliminating certain present tasks. It suggested that the proposal
and recommendation that the work be carried out by the APA TFG be
submitted by the Bangkok Office Secretariat to APANPIRG for
consideration at its next meeting. Should APANPIRG approve the
proposal and recommendation, an access to appropriate databases and
additional resources have to be ensured in order for the Group to
carry out the proposed task. The additional resources would be an
important factor, especially in case the Group is required to
continue with the full scope of its current assignments. Once the
new task is approved, the Group would work out a methodology to
develop such forecasts and generate them, initially for a sample of
routes for which data would be available. The number of routes
would be gradually expanded should the required data become
available to the Group.

Bearing in mind the number of airports in the Asia/Pacific
region and the complexity of the task, the Group believed that the
proposed development of aircraft movements at airports would not be
feasible and that the Bangkok Office could consider collating
forecasts already developed for the region's airports, in close
cooperation with the States concerned, for the purposes of the work
of various APANPIRG subgroups.